Duke redefines a "bet" not as a gamble, but as a . Every time you make a choice, you are betting resources (time, money, energy) on a specific outcome. This mindset forces you to acknowledge that nothing is 100% certain.
Duke identifies a second major cognitive hurdle: the human tendency to think in absolutes (0% or 100%). This binary view of the world leaves no room for nuance. When individuals hold a belief, they often treat it as an absolute truth. Duke suggests that individuals should instead express confidence in beliefs as probabilities. thinking in bets annie duke pdf
Duke further addresses the temporal dimension of decision-making. Humans are prone to "temporal discounting"—overvaluing immediate rewards and undervaluing future consequences. To counter this, she employs the "10-10-10" exercise developed by Suzy Welch. Before making a decision, one asks: How will I feel about this in 10 minutes? In 10 months? In 10 years? Duke redefines a "bet" not as a gamble, but as a